Status Update: Late 2025
if you were hoping that 2025 would be the year we finally bid farewell to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), the data suggests otherwise. We are now entering the third winter of an unprecedented global outbreak.
While the mainstream media cycle has largely moved on, the threat level for the poultry world—whether you manage five hens or 500,000—remains at a "Red Alert" status. This season brings a new set of challenges: shifting variants and a virus that is proving to be a master of adaptation.
1. The Numbers: A "Smoldering" Endemic
To understand our current risk, we have to look at how the virus has shifted from a seasonal visitor to a permanent resident.
- From "Spillover" to "Steady State": In late 2024, the industry was rocked by the H5N1 "Dairy Cow Spillover." While those massive nationwide spikes have leveled off, we have entered a "smoldering" phase. The virus isn't disappearing; it’s circulating at a consistent, dangerous baseline.
- Commercial Impact: The losses remain devastating. This year, South Dakota alone recorded its 17th commercial flock loss, with similar sporadic hits across the Midwest and North Carolina.
- The New "Year-Round" Reality: We can no longer wait for "migration season" to pass. HPAI is now considered endemic in many resident wild bird populations.
🔬 The Science Spotlight: H5N5 & Reassortment
For two years, the focus was almost entirely on H5N1. However, late 2025 has brought a critical evolutionary shift: the emergence of H5N5.
What is Reassortment? Influenza A viruses are experts at "shuffling the deck." When two different flu viruses infect the same host cell, they can swap genetic segments to create a brand-new subtype.
The recent confirmed human case of H5N5 in Washington State—the first of its kind globally—proves the virus is actively evolving. For poultry keepers, this means we are fighting an ever-changing "viral cocktail."
2. "Inflatable" Desperation
You know the situation is dire when industry giants like Rose Acre Farms begin testing giant inflatable tube men (the kind seen at car dealerships) to scare off wild birds.
While the image is humorous, it underscores a desperate truth: Traditional deterrents are failing. If massive commercial operations are resorting to car-dealership tactics because standard biosecurity is struggling, it’s a wake-up call for the backyard enthusiast. Your standard chicken wire is a physical barrier, but it is not a biological one.
3. The "Red Alert" Protocol
With no widespread US vaccination program currently available due to trade complexities, biosecurity is your only shield.
1. Roof Your Run
Wild bird droppings are the "express lane" for infection. Use a solid roof or a fine-mesh tarp.
2. Dedicated Boots
Designate "Coop Boots" that never leave the poultry area. Don't track the virus in from the street.
3. Stop Wild Feeding
Stop feeding songbirds near your coop. They are the primary vectors for small-scale transmission.
Conclusion: Vigilance is the New Normal
The hard truth of late 2025 is that HPAI has established itself in the environment. By staying informed on variants like H5N5 and tightening your husbandry, you are doing your part to break the chain of transmission. Stay safe, stay covered, and keep your flock separate.
📚 Sources & Further Reading
- 🔗 H5N5 Genomic Evolution: Washington State Health Dept Report (2025)
- 🔗 USDA APHIS Surveillance: Tracking HPAI losses in South Dakota
- 🔗 Behavioral Deterrents: Rose Acre Farms Inflatable Study, Poultry Science Journal